In July and August, Washington tightened restrictions on foreign-made advanced robotic systems and imposed tariffs on imported drones and their components, citing national security. The drone tariffs take effect in September, with additional component tariffs in 2027. These moves expand the FCC’s Covered List, which initially targeted telecom equipment from Huawei, ZTE, and Hikvision and now includes drones and advanced robots. The restrictions come as Chinese manufacturers dominate global humanoid robot shipments: 22,000 units in the first half of 2026, with the top five Chinese makers (AgiBot, Unitree, Galbot, UBTECH, Leju Robotics) accounting for 86% of global shipments, according to Counterpoint. U.S. companies operate at far smaller scale. Chinese manufacturers benefit from lower prices, more real-world data, and in-house component development, driving costs down further. Ankur Saxena of TDK Ventures notes, “You cannot sanction your way around a cost curve. You can only out-build it, and America has yet to begin making the decade-long investment that will require.”

The restrictions may not create a clean U.S.-China split but a fragmented global market. Chinese companies are likely to expand in price-sensitive markets with labor shortages across Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, following a path similar to Chinese EV makers. The drone market already shows this split: a U.S.-led market focused on NDAA-compliant systems for defense, and a China-led low-cost market. Bentzion Levinson of Heven AeroTech says the next battleground is energy and payload architecture, especially batteries. Agility Robotics welcomed the FCC decision, advocating for security while maintaining access to research tools. The alternative to China is a diversified allied supply chain, with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan offering strengths but unable to replace China’s embedded components. Yang Fang of Beagle Technology predicts robotics will become more regional, designed for local labor needs. The outcome may be regional markets: Chinese companies competing on cost globally, U.S. and allied manufacturers where security matters, and Asian manufacturers in between.