Palantir’s Q3 beat hides slowing enterprise contract value

Palantir delivered a huge third-quarter earnings report on Monday, and its press release boasted that the numbers were ‘crushing consensus expectations.’ Revenue grew 96% year over year to $2.31 billion, the first time Palantir has surpassed $2 billion in a single quarter, and grew 20% from the previous quarter, beating analysts’ expectation of $2.18 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.44 versus analysts’ forecast of $0.41. The company even raised its full-year revenue guidance. The clincher was that U.S. commercial revenue reached $984 million, up 148% year over year, and overtook U.S. government revenue of $953 million for the first time ever. Normally that alone would send a stock soaring, but retail investors were lukewarm on Tuesday and shares traded slightly down.

That’s because Palantir‘s enterprise sales, its big growth area, showed signs of slowing. CEO Alex Karp told Wall Street analysts on the quarterly conference call that customers are showing ‘much quicker interaction, much quicker to deployment, shorter duration of the contract but then an ability to expand that contract dramatically.’ Enterprises are willing to try AI software quickly, without their typical bureaucracy, but they are also more willing to cancel contracts. The numbers demonstrate the tension: Palantir closed $1.46 billion of total contract value from U.S. enterprises in the quarter, down from its record-setting $2.13 billion of enterprise TCV in the previous quarter. That suggests decelerating sales, at least last quarter. Karp used one off-color metaphor after another to describe how unconcerned he was about holding onto his enterprise business, comparing the influx of prospective corporate customers to going ‘from being the most attractive person in the physics department to being the captain of the football team,’ and adding, ‘once you go Palantir, you don’t go back.’

Enterprises are signing up because Palantir‘s AI software can run frontier models and custom-train open-weight models securely, without sharing their data and business processes with outside AI labs. Palantir also offers what is today known as forward-deployed software engineering, which helps customers customize its wares. Still, the numbers don’t yet confirm long-term success. The company increased its guidance for U.S. commercial revenue to be ‘in excess of $3.559 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 143%.’ Historically, many enterprises sign their biggest tech purchases in the final quarter of the year, so the next earnings report will show whether Palantir has solidified its role as a rising U.S. enterprise AI provider.

Hiding inside Palantir's skyrocketing quarter is a foreboding signal | TechCrunch

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